Liiga · 2027

Kärpät vs KalPa prediction, Friday, 23 October 2026 at 18:30

Friday, 23 October 2026 at 18:30

In shortThe model favours Kärpät (40.5%). Expected goals are 2.78 – 2.70, and the most likely single scoreline is 2–2 (5.9%). No single scoreline is likely on its own: hockey is high-variance, and these numbers only say which way the game leans.

Win probabilities

Kärpät	40.5%
Draw	22.7%
KalPa	36.8%

Model odds

Kärpät	2.47
Draw	4.40
KalPa	2.72

Market odds

Kärpät	1.97
Draw	4.05
KalPa	3.35

Odds: Veikkaus

Expected goals

Kärpät	2.78
KalPa	2.70

Most probable score

2–2	5.9% probability

Other likely scores

2–2 5.9%
3–2 5.5%
2–3 5.3%
3–3 4.9%
2–1 4.4%
1–2 4.2%

Goal totals

over 3.5	79.6%
over 4.5	63.9%
over 5.5	46.7%
over 6.5	31.0%

See the full game day and live numbers →

Model

Poisson-based model, fitted on 2433 games (2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027).

These numbers are estimates from a statistical model, not betting advice. Gamble responsibly. 18+. Updated: 2026-10-21.