Liiga · 2027

Lukko vs TPS prediction, Friday, 23 October 2026 at 18:30

Friday, 23 October 2026 at 18:30

In shortThe model favours Lukko (49.1%). Expected goals are 2.91 – 2.20, and the most likely single scoreline is 2–2 (6.2%). No single scoreline is likely on its own: hockey is high-variance, and these numbers only say which way the game leans.

Win probabilities

Lukko	49.1%
Draw	22.7%
TPS	28.2%

Model odds

Lukko	2.04
Draw	4.41
TPS	3.55

Market odds

Lukko	2.40
Draw	3.80
TPS	2.68

Odds: Veikkaus

Expected goals

Lukko	2.91
TPS	2.20

Most probable score

2–2	6.2% probability

Other likely scores

2–2 6.2%
3–2 6.0%
2–1 5.6%
3–1 5.5%
2–3 4.5%
3–3 4.4%

Goal totals

over 3.5	75.0%
over 4.5	57.9%
over 5.5	40.4%
over 6.5	25.4%

See the full game day and live numbers →

Model

Poisson-based model, fitted on 2433 games (2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027).

These numbers are estimates from a statistical model, not betting advice. Gamble responsibly. 18+. Updated: 2026-10-21.