Liiga · 2027

SaiPa vs Kärpät prediction, Tuesday, 20 October 2026 at 18:30

Tuesday, 20 October 2026 at 18:30

In shortThe model favours SaiPa (48.7%). Expected goals are 3.08 – 2.40, and the most likely single scoreline is 3–2 (5.8%). No single scoreline is likely on its own: hockey is high-variance, and these numbers only say which way the game leans.

Win probabilities

SaiPa	48.7%
Draw	22.1%
Kärpät	29.2%

Model odds

SaiPa	2.05
Draw	4.53
Kärpät	3.42

Market odds

SaiPa	2.00
Draw	4.15
Kärpät	3.27

Odds: Veikkaus

Expected goals

SaiPa	3.08
Kärpät	2.40

Most probable score

3–2	5.8% probability

Other likely scores

3–2 5.8%
2–2 5.7%
3–1 4.9%
2–1 4.7%
3–3 4.7%
2–3 4.6%

Goal totals

over 3.5	79.6%
over 4.5	64.0%
over 5.5	46.8%
over 6.5	31.1%

See the full game day and live numbers →

Model

Poisson-based model, fitted on 2425 games (2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027).

These numbers are estimates from a statistical model, not betting advice. Gamble responsibly. 18+. Updated: 2026-10-19.