Liiga · 2027

TPS vs Ilves prediction, Tuesday, 20 October 2026 at 18:30

Tuesday, 20 October 2026 at 18:30

In shortThe model favours TPS (38.7%). Expected goals are 2.55 – 2.57, and the most likely single scoreline is 2–2 (6.4%). No single scoreline is likely on its own: hockey is high-variance, and these numbers only say which way the game leans.

Win probabilities

TPS	38.7%
Draw	23.4%
Ilves	37.8%

Model odds

TPS	2.58
Draw	4.26
Ilves	2.64

Market odds

TPS	2.27
Draw	3.75
Ilves	2.88

Odds: Veikkaus

Expected goals

TPS	2.55
Ilves	2.57

Most probable score

2–2	6.4% probability

Other likely scores

2–2 6.4%
2–3 5.5%
3–2 5.5%
1–2 5.0%
2–1 5.0%
3–3 4.7%

Goal totals

over 3.5	75.1%
over 4.5	57.9%
over 5.5	40.4%
over 6.5	25.5%

See the full game day and live numbers →

Model

Poisson-based model, fitted on 2425 games (2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027).

These numbers are estimates from a statistical model, not betting advice. Gamble responsibly. 18+. Updated: 2026-10-19.