NHL · 2027
Toronto Maple Leafs vs New York Rangers prediction, Friday, 23 October 2026 at 02:00
Friday, 23 October 2026 at 02:00
In shortThe model favours New York Rangers (40.5%). Expected goals are 2.97 – 3.12, and the most likely single scoreline is 2–3 (5.1%). No single scoreline is likely on its own: hockey is high-variance, and these numbers only say which way the game leans.
Win probabilities
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 36.7% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 22.8% |
| New York Rangers | 40.5% |
Goals only. NHL forecasts are built from goals alone: the league publishes no shot-quality data we can use and no lineups before puck drop.
Model odds
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 2.72 |
|---|---|
| Draw | 4.39 |
| New York Rangers | 2.47 |
Expected goals
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 2.97 |
|---|---|
| New York Rangers | 3.12 |
Most probable score
| 2–3 | 5.1% probability |
|---|
Other likely scores
- 2–3 5.1%
- 3–3 5.0%
- 2–2 4.9%
- 3–2 4.8%
- 2–4 3.9%
- 3–4 3.9%
Goal totals
| over 3.5 | 85.7% |
|---|---|
| over 4.5 | 72.7% |
| over 5.5 | 56.9% |
| over 6.5 | 40.8% |
Model
These numbers are estimates from a statistical model, not betting advice. Gamble responsibly. 18+. Updated: 2026-10-21.