NHL · 2027

Toronto Maple Leafs vs San Jose Sharks prediction, Tuesday, 20 October 2026 at 02:30

Tuesday, 20 October 2026 at 02:30

In shortThe model favours Toronto Maple Leafs (49.5%). Expected goals are 3.69 – 2.94, and the most likely single scoreline is 3–2 (4.8%). No single scoreline is likely on its own: hockey is high-variance, and these numbers only say which way the game leans.

Win probabilities

Toronto Maple Leafs	49.5%
Draw	21.2%
San Jose Sharks	29.3%

Goals only. NHL forecasts are built from goals alone: the league publishes no shot-quality data we can use and no lineups before puck drop.

Model odds

Toronto Maple Leafs	2.02
Draw	4.72
San Jose Sharks	3.42

Market odds

Toronto Maple Leafs	2.20
Draw	4.30
San Jose Sharks	2.75

Odds: Veikkaus

Expected goals

Toronto Maple Leafs	3.69
San Jose Sharks	2.94

Most probable score

3–2	4.8% probability

Other likely scores

3–2 4.8%
3–3 4.7%
4–2 4.4%
4–3 4.3%
2–2 3.9%
2–3 3.8%

Goal totals

over 3.5	89.7%
over 4.5	79.1%
over 5.5	65.0%
over 6.5	49.4%

See the full game day and live numbers →

Model

Poisson-based model, fitted on 4072 games (2024, 2025, 2026, 2027).

These numbers are estimates from a statistical model, not betting advice. Gamble responsibly. 18+. Updated: 2026-10-19.