NHL · 2027

Vegas Golden Knights vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction, Wednesday, 21 October 2026 at 05:30

Wednesday, 21 October 2026 at 05:30

In shortThe model favours Vegas Golden Knights (40.0%). Expected goals are 3.08 – 2.99, and the most likely single scoreline is 3–2 (5.0%). No single scoreline is likely on its own: hockey is high-variance, and these numbers only say which way the game leans.

Win probabilities

Vegas Golden Knights	40.0%
Draw	22.8%
Tampa Bay Lightning	37.2%

Goals only. NHL forecasts are built from goals alone: the league publishes no shot-quality data we can use and no lineups before puck drop.

Model odds

Vegas Golden Knights	2.50
Draw	4.38
Tampa Bay Lightning	2.69

Market odds

Vegas Golden Knights	2.47
Draw	4.10
Tampa Bay Lightning	2.47

Odds: Veikkaus

Expected goals

Vegas Golden Knights	3.08
Tampa Bay Lightning	2.99

Most probable score

3–2	5.0% probability

Other likely scores

3–2 5.0%
3–3 5.0%
2–2 4.9%
2–3 4.9%
4–2 3.9%
4–3 3.9%

Goal totals

over 3.5	85.5%
over 4.5	72.4%
over 5.5	56.5%
over 6.5	40.4%

See the full game day and live numbers →

Model

Poisson-based model, fitted on 4072 games (2024, 2025, 2026, 2027).

These numbers are estimates from a statistical model, not betting advice. Gamble responsibly. 18+. Updated: 2026-10-19.