SHL · 2027

Björklöven vs Malmö prediction, Thursday, 22 October 2026 at 20:00

Thursday, 22 October 2026 at 20:00

In shortThe model favours Björklöven (43.4%). Expected goals are 2.70 – 2.38, and the most likely single scoreline is 2–2 (6.4%). No single scoreline is likely on its own: hockey is high-variance, and these numbers only say which way the game leans.

Win probabilities

Björklöven	43.4%
Draw	23.6%
Malmö	33.0%

Goals only. SHL forecasts are built from goals alone: the league publishes no shot-quality data we can use and no lineups before puck drop.

Model odds

Björklöven	2.31
Draw	4.23
Malmö	3.03

Market odds

Björklöven	3.06
Draw	3.90
Malmö	2.08

Odds: Veikkaus

Expected goals

Björklöven	2.70
Malmö	2.38

Most probable score

2–2	6.4% probability

Other likely scores

2–2 6.4%
3–2 5.8%
2–1 5.4%
2–3 5.1%
3–1 4.9%
1–2 4.8%

Goal totals

over 3.5	74.6%
over 4.5	57.4%
over 5.5	39.9%
over 6.5	25.0%

See the full game day and live numbers →

Model

Poisson-based model, fitted on 1889 games (2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027).

These numbers are estimates from a statistical model, not betting advice. Gamble responsibly. 18+. Updated: 2026-10-19.