NHL · 2027

Pittsburgh Penguins vs Ottawa Senators prediction, Sunday, 15 November 2026 at 02:00

Sunday, 15 November 2026 at 02:00

In shortThe model favours Ottawa Senators (40.2%). Expected goals are 3.19 – 3.30, and the most likely single scoreline is 3–3 (4.9%). No single scoreline is likely on its own: hockey is high-variance, and these numbers only say which way the game leans.

Win probabilities

Pittsburgh Penguins	37.7%
Draw	22.1%
Ottawa Senators	40.2%

Goals only. NHL forecasts are built from goals alone: the league publishes no shot-quality data we can use and no lineups before puck drop.

Model odds

Pittsburgh Penguins	2.66
Draw	4.52
Ottawa Senators	2.49

Market odds

Pittsburgh Penguins	2.68
Draw	4.20
Ottawa Senators	2.28

Odds: Veikkaus

Expected goals

Pittsburgh Penguins	3.19
Ottawa Senators	3.30

Most probable score

3–3	4.9% probability

Other likely scores

3–3 4.9%
2–3 4.6%
3–2 4.5%
2–2 4.2%
3–4 4.1%
4–3 3.9%

Goal totals

over 3.5	88.8%
over 4.5	77.5%
over 5.5	63.0%
over 6.5	47.2%

See the full game day and live numbers →

Model

Poisson-based model, fitted on 4245 games (2024, 2025, 2026, 2027).

These numbers are estimates from a statistical model, not betting advice. Gamble responsibly. 18+. Updated: 2026-11-13.