NHL · 2027

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Edmonton Oilers prediction, Sunday, 15 November 2026 at 02:00

Sunday, 15 November 2026 at 02:00

In shortThe model favours Edmonton Oilers (46.0%). Expected goals are 3.16 – 3.68, and the most likely single scoreline is 3–3 (4.7%). No single scoreline is likely on its own: hockey is high-variance, and these numbers only say which way the game leans.

Win probabilities

Toronto Maple Leafs	32.7%
Draw	21.3%
Edmonton Oilers	46.0%

Goals only. NHL forecasts are built from goals alone: the league publishes no shot-quality data we can use and no lineups before puck drop.

Model odds

Toronto Maple Leafs	3.06
Draw	4.70
Edmonton Oilers	2.17

Market odds

Toronto Maple Leafs	2.88
Draw	4.30
Edmonton Oilers	2.11

Odds: Veikkaus

Expected goals

Toronto Maple Leafs	3.16
Edmonton Oilers	3.68

Most probable score

3–3	4.7% probability

Other likely scores

3–3 4.7%
2–3 4.4%
3–4 4.3%
2–4 4.1%
3–2 3.8%
4–3 3.7%

Goal totals

over 3.5	91.0%
over 4.5	81.2%
over 5.5	67.9%
over 6.5	52.7%

See the full game day and live numbers →

Model

Poisson-based model, fitted on 4245 games (2024, 2025, 2026, 2027).

These numbers are estimates from a statistical model, not betting advice. Gamble responsibly. 18+. Updated: 2026-11-13.