Liiga · 2027

TPS vs Lukko prediction, Saturday, 24 October 2026 at 17:00

Saturday, 24 October 2026 at 17:00

In shortThe model favours Lukko (39.7%). Expected goals are 2.45 – 2.61, and the most likely single scoreline is 2–2 (6.5%). No single scoreline is likely on its own: hockey is high-variance, and these numbers only say which way the game leans.

Win probabilities

TPS	36.8%
Draw	23.5%
Lukko	39.7%

Model odds

TPS	2.72
Draw	4.25
Lukko	2.52

Expected goals

TPS	2.45
Lukko	2.61

Most probable score

2–2	6.5% probability

Other likely scores

2–2 6.5%
2–3 5.6%
3–2 5.3%
1–2 5.3%
2–1 5.0%
3–3 4.6%

Goal totals

over 3.5	74.4%
over 4.5	57.1%
over 5.5	39.5%
over 6.5	24.7%

See the full game day and live numbers →

Model

Poisson-based model, fitted on 2434 games (2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027).

These numbers are estimates from a statistical model, not betting advice. Gamble responsibly. 18+. Updated: 2026-10-22.